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According to a shocking new poll, Labour will win the next election by a landslide, leaving the Conservatives with just 69 seats. According to the Sevanta study, Keir Starmer’s party will win 482 seats, giving him a 314-seat majority.
That would be far more than Tony Blair achieved in 1997 when New Labour won with a 179-vote majority. Rishi Sunak and his two predecessors, Liz Truss and Boris Johnson would be among the Tory heavyweights to lose their seats.
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The poll is noteworthy because it was conducted using an “MRP model,” which has been shown to be more accurate than traditional surveys.
The Sevanta poll puts support for Labour on 48%, with the Conservatives on 28%, the Lib Dems on 11%, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK on 4% and the Greens on 3%.
It predicts that the SNP would again be the third largest party in the House of Commons, with 55 MPs – seven more than they currently have. The Lib Dems would see their number of MPs jump by 10 to 21.
Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said, “Last time we published an MRP model, I spoke of both the potential and precarious nature of the 56-seat majority and 12pt lead the poll gave the Labour party during their conference.
“Even the most optimistic Labour supporter would not have foreseen what was to come, such was the subsequent Conservative collapse, and therefore this latest MRP model reflects the position now, of two parties experiencing widely differing electoral fortunes.”
He did, however, say that the pollster “must still express caution” and that Sunak could still fight back before the next election, which is scheduled for 2024.
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He said, “Many seats going to Labour in this model, including a few that could be deemed ‘red wall’, still indicate a 40% or higher chance of remaining Conservative, and while that would have little impact on the overall election result, it does show that if Rishi Sunak can keep narrowing that Labour lead, point-by-point, the actual results come 2024 could look very different to this nowcast model.”
The post Labour May Win Landslide Majority As Tories Slump To Just 69 Seats appeared first on SurgeZirc UK.
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